Jimmy Kim - Mini LED Backlight & OLED Materials Market and Technology
Mini LED 背光与 OLED 材料
市场与技术分析
Market and Technology Analysis
来源: Omdia | 第48回ディスプレイ産業フォーラム (2025年1月23-24日)
电视市场动态
TV Market Dynamics: Mini LED vs. OLED
Mini LED 电视市场向好
Mini LED TV market is improving.
1.2M+
3Q24 出货量
Q3'24 Shipments
4.7M
2024年预测上调
2024 Forecast Raised
需求分化
高端电视市场中，OLED与Mini LED需求出现分化。
Demand Segregation in Premium TV
电视显示屏出货量预测
TV Display Shipment Forecast (Millions)
高端电视市场趋势
Premium TV Market Trends (Shipments '000 sets)
高端LCD电视(含Mini LED)需求增长，而OLED电视销售则陷入低迷。 (趋势观察自 Page 5 图表)
Mini LED 市场领导地位转移
Shift in Mini LED Market Leadership: Samsung to TCL & Hisense.
三星VD策略调整
三星高端电视总出货量保持不变，但增加了OLED比例，减少了Mini LED。
Samsung VD: More OLED, Less Mini LED
Mini LED电视厂商份额 (截至3Q24)
Mini LED TV Shipment Share by Maker (until 3Q24)
低成本Mini LED电视推动市场扩张
Low-cost products may expand Mini LED TV market coverage.
4.7M
2024年出货量
2024 Shipments
9.2M
2025年预计大幅增长
2025 Big Jump Forecast
15.5M
2028年出货量预测
2028 Shipment Forecast
Mini LED 技术与成本 (电视)
Mini LED Technology & Cost Evolution (TVs)
TCL POB Mini LED 技术发展
TCL's POB Mini LED Technology Development.
~2022: 单晶
光效 +7%
Single Crystal, 7% Light Eff. Incr.
2023: 双晶
光效 +11.3%
Dual-crystal (2-in-1 PKG)
2024: 六晶
光效 +30.2%
Six-crystal (6-in-1 PKG)
为降本，厂商减少LED封装数，采用多芯片封装补偿亮度损失，而非简单增大芯片尺寸。
65英寸4K电视 Mini LED背光LCD成本分析
Cost Analysis: 65" 4K Mini LED Backlighting LCD TV Module (vs. Traditional LCD)
1.17x
低成本Mini LED vs 传统LCD (2-in-1 POB)
Low-cost Mini LED vs. Traditional LCD
-10%
2-in-1 LED封装额外降本 (对比Normal POB)
2-in-1 PKG Add. Cost Reduction
QD OLED 成本与市场 (电视)
QD OLED Cost & Market Position (TVs)
65英寸4K QD OLED 电视制造成本趋势
Manufacturing Cost Trend: 65" 4K QD OLED TV (2021-2024F)
成本饱和
良率充分提升后，成本进入饱和阶段。
Cost Saturation Reached
x1.17
2024年 QD OLED vs 当前 WOLED
2024 QD OLED vs. Current WOLED
三星VD计划积极采用QD OLED于其高端产品，大规模量产亦有助提高良率。
IT 市场: Mini LED 向 OLED 迁移
IT Market: The On-going Shift from Mini LED to OLED
苹果IT产品显示技术转变
Apple's IT Products Display Technology Shifting from Mini LED to OLED.
平板先行
技术转变从平板始，Mini LED平板需求骤降。
Tablet First, Demand Dropped
~1M
旧款Mini LED iPad年出货量
Legacy Mini LED iPad Shipments
>7M
2024年IT用Mini LED背光出货
2024 Mini LED Backlights for IT
MacBook 跟进
MacBook Pro 预计2026-27年转向OLED。
MacBook Pro to Follow (2026-27)
其他厂商需求有限
因制造成本高，其他IT制造商对Mini LED的需求预计很少。
Limited Demand from Other IT Makers
平板电脑显示屏出货量预测
Tablet Display Shipment Forecast (Millions)
笔记本电脑显示屏出货量预测
Notebook PC Display Shipment Forecast (Millions)
苹果IT应用：Mini LED vs. AMOLED 挑战与方案
Apple's IT Applications: Mini LED LCD vs. AMOLED Challenges & Solutions.
Mini LED 背光 LCD (2021-23)
主要挑战:
- 直接背光中的光学距离
- LED数量巨大 (>10,000颗)
- 7层光学膜堆叠以增强混光
克服方法:
- 荧光膜 (或QD片) / LED上无荧光粉
- 增强混光，避免LED-荧光粉工艺差异
AMOLED (2024-)
主要挑战:
- 长时间运行的可靠性
- RGB OLED大面积应用/柔性屏
- 制造输出能力与大面积平坦度
克服方法:
- RGB 双层串联结构 (Tandem)
- 混合OLED (刚性基板 + TFE封装)
- Gen 8 Fab 制造
IT用OLED: 成本, 制造与未来 (Gen 8+)
OLED for IT: Cost, Manufacturing & Future (Gen 8+)
12.9英寸平板显示成本对比 (4Q24)
Cost Comparison: 12.9" Tablet Display (Total Sales Cost)
$249 (OLED) vs $218 (Mini-LED)
OLED成本当前高约14%
OLED ~14% higher than Mini-LED
16.2英寸笔记本显示成本对比 (4Q24)
Cost Comparison: 16.2" Notebook Display (Total Sales Cost)
$347 (OLED) vs $252 (Mini-LED)
OLED成本当前高近38%
OLED ~38% higher than Mini-LED
Gen 8 Fab 对 IT OLED 成本的积极影响
Positive Impact of Gen 8 Fab on IT OLED Costs due to Improved Glass Efficiency.
12.9" 平板效率
Gen 6: 78% Gen 8.6: 83%
Tablet Glass Efficiency
16.2" 笔电效率
Gen 6: 67% Gen 8.6: 77%
Notebook Glass Efficiency
Gen 8 制造时机
建议2026-27年，配合新Gen8 FMM。
Optimal Timing for Gen 8 Mfg.
Tandem OLED Gen 8 Fab 成本效益 (笔记本 16.2")
Cost Benefits of Tandem OLED from Gen 8 Fab for Notebooks (16.2").
~34%↓
Gen 8 (Double-F) 降本潜力
Cost Down (Gen 8 Double-Flow)
< Mini-LED
Gen 8 (One-F) 成本可低于Mini-LED
Gen 8 One-Flow Cost
优化初期
Gen 8 制造优化前成本可能上升。
Initial Costs May Rise
Tandem OLED Gen 8 Fab 成本效益 (平板 12.9")
Cost Benefits of Tandem OLED from Gen 8 Fab for Tablets (12.9").
≈ Mini-LED
Gen 8 (Double-F) 成本接近Mini-LED
Gen 8 Double-Flow Cost
<< Mini-LED
Gen 8 (One-F) 成本远低于Mini-LED
Gen 8 One-Flow Cost
~24%↓
Gen 8 (One-F) 总降本潜力
Total Cost Down (Gen 8 One-Flow)
Gen 8.6 vs Gen 8.5 基板对苹果产品成本影响
Impact of Gen 8.6 vs Gen 8.5 Substrate Size on Apple Product Costs.
12.9" iPad
Gen 8.6 降本 7%
7% Cost Reduction
11" iPad
Gen 8.6 成本略高 (+0.7%)
Slightly Higher Cost
14.2" MacBook
Gen 8.6 降本 (~3.7%)
Cost Reduction
16.2" MacBook
Gen 8.6 成本高 (+2.7%)
Relatively Higher Cost
OLED 材料市场
OLED Materials Market Insights
Tandem OLED 驱动 RGB 材料消耗增长
Tandem OLED Drives RGB Material Consumption Growth.
13-25%↑
1H24 RGB材料消耗超预期
1H24 RGB Consumption Up
WOLED 稳定
WOLED材料消耗与预测一致。
WOLED Consumption Stable
2H24 回落
OLED iPad需求降，材料支出回落。
2H24 Material Spending Declined
OLED 材料消耗量按厂商 (千克)
Quarterly OLED Material Consumption by Maker (Kilograms)
LGD 增幅最大
1Q24起增长，获苹果iPad批准。
LGD: Biggest Gain
SDC 2Q24增长
Design-in延迟，仅11"型号。
SDC: Gained in 2Q24
BOE 持续增长
4Q24持续增长而SDC/LGD降。
BOE: Continuous Growth
Mini LED 背光市场总览与预测
Overall Mini LED Backlighting Market Forecast
市场驱动因素与趋势
Market Drivers and Trends.
12.2M
2024年Mini LED背光LCD出货量
2024 Total Shipments
电视市场
持续增长
Consistent Growth in TV
IT市场
被OLED蚕食
Cannibalization by OLED in IT
Mini LED 背光LCD出货量按应用预测 (百万台)
Mini LED Backlighting LCD Shipment Forecast by Application (Millions)
预计2025年总出货量将进一步增长至16.8百万台，未来几年电视需求将驱动主要增长。